National nutrient input ceilings

Fulfilment of nitrogen input ceilings by countries:

• Denmark is the only country fulfilling nitrogen input ceilings for all HELCOM sub-basins. Denmark reduced total nitrogen inputs to all HELCOM sub-basins since the reference period with between 19% and 49%.
• Estonia achieved the national input ceiling for Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea, Danish Straits and Kattegat. The remaining reductions for the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland constitute 34%, 13% and 12%, respectively. Accounting for extra reduction in Bothnian Sea only contributes with 2 tons TN reduction in Baltic Proper. Inputs since the reference period were reduced statistically significantly to all basins (between 10% and 35%) except to Gulf of Riga which showed a significant increase (23%).
• Finland achieved nitrogen input ceilings for five sub-basins except to the Gulf of Finland and Bothnian Bay. The remaining reduction for the Gulf of Finland is 1.6% and for the Bothnian Bay 4.2% and is within statistical uncertainty. Reallocation of the extra reduction from Bothnian Sea to Bothnian Bay reduces the missing reduction to 0.9%, which remains within statistical uncertainty. Finland reduced total nitrogen inputs to all HELCOM sub-basins since the reference period with between 8% and 52%.
• Germany achieved nitrogen input ceilings for all sub-basins except to Baltic Proper with a remaining reduction of 4.4%. Reallocation of the extra reduction from the Gulf of Riga, Danish Straits and the Gulf of Finland to Baltic Proper reduces the missing reduction to 2.5%. Germany reduced total nitrogen inputs to all HELCOM sub-basins since the reference period by between 20% and 37%.
• Latvia fulfils the input ceilings for Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea, Danish Straits and the Kattegat. The remaining reduction for the Gulf of Riga is 3.1% and is within statistical uncertainty. The remaining reductions for Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland constitute 105% and 14%, respectively. Accounting for extra reduction in Danish Straits only contributes with 1 tons TN reduction in Baltic Proper. Latvia decreased inputs to five sub-basins between 10% and 14%, but has an 48% increase to Baltic Proper since the reference period, and no change in total nitrogen inputs to Gulf of Riga.
• Lithuania exceeded its ceilings to all sub-basins except to Danish Straits. However, remaining reduction to Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea and the Kattegat are only between 4.5 and 8.8%. Reallocation of the extra reduction from Danish Straits to the Kattegat reduces the missing reduction from 5.5% to 4.2%. The remaining reductions for Baltic Proper, the Gulf of Riga and the Gulf of Finland constitute 123%, 62 and 22%, respectively. Lithuania increased its input to Baltic Proper (62%) and the Gulf of Riga (55%) since the reference period. Inputs to other sub-basins have not significantly changed since the reference period.
• Poland achieved the input ceiling for all sub-basins except for Baltic Proper, where the remaining reduction is 20%. Reallocation of the extra reduction from Danish Straits to the Baltic Proper does not change the missing reduction in percentages. Poland reduced total nitrogen inputs to all HELCOM sub-basins since the reference period by between 11% and 26%.
• Russia fulfils input ceiling for Bothnian Sea, the Gulf of Riga, Danish Straits, and the Kattegat. The remaining reductions for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper and Bothnian Bay constitute 28%, 11% and 2.7%, respectively. Reallocation of the extra reduction from the Gulf of Riga and Danish Straits to the Baltic Proper reduced the missing reduction to 9.0%. Russia reduced total nitrogen inputs to all HELCOM sub-basins since the reference period by between 11% and 29%, except for Gulf of Finland where no changes in nitrogen inputs are assessed.
• Sweden achieved nitrogen input ceilings for five of the HELCOM sub-basins except for Baltic Proper and Danish Straits. The remaining reduction for the latter is 9.2% but within statistical uncertainty while the reduction requirement for the Baltic Proper remains 32%. The reallocation of the extra reduction achieved in the Kattegat to the Danish Straits change the remaining (statistical uncertain) reduction requirements to 0.9%. The reallocation of the extra reduction achieved in the Gulf of Riga and the Gulf of Finland to Baltic Proper does not change the remaining reduction requirements in percentage. Sweden has reduced total nitrogen inputs to five HELCOM sub-basins by between 20% to 33% since the reference period, but no significant changes in nitrogen inputs have been assessed to Baltic Proper and Danish Straits.
• In general, Baltic Proper, the Gulf of Riga and the Gulf of Finland have the highest remaining reductions to achieve the ceilings for most countries.
• Waterborne transboundary nitrogen inputs from Belarus (31%) and Ukraine (117%) exceed corresponding input ceilings to Baltic Proper, while the exceedance from Czech Republic (20%) is within statistical uncertainty. Waterborne nitrogen inputs from Belarus to the Gulf of Riga fulfil the input ceiling. Ukraine is the only non-HELCOM country which has increased waterborne nitrogen inputs to Baltic Proper since the reference period.
• Atmospheric nitrogen inputs from Baltic Sea shipping exceed their target values to all sub-basins, the remaining reductions are between 43% and 86%. The inputs have been reduced to all sub-basins since the reference period by 23%.
• Atmospheric nitrogen inputs from North Sea shipping exceed their target values to all sub-basins, the remaining reductions are between 61% and 122%. The inputs have been reduced to all sub-basins since the reference period by 27%.
• Other non-HELCOM countries and sources exceed respective target values for atmospheric input of nitrogen to all sub-basins, the remaining reductions are between 26% and 59%. The inputs have been reduced to all sub-basins since the reference period with between 32% and 43%.
• Generally, the highest percentages reductions of total nitrogen inputs from HELCOM Contracting Parties are for the sub-basins where the countries only contribute with airborne inputs.

Fulfilment of nitrogen input ceilings for transboundary rivers:

• Nitrogen nutrient ceilings is only fulfilled for Daugava. The remaining reduction for the remaining eight transboundary rivers with nutrient inputs ceilings are approx. 120% for Barta and Venta, 89% for Nemunas, 77% for Lielupe, 39% for both Pregolya and Vistula, 35% for Neva and 31% for Oder.
• Waterborne nitrogen inputs increased in Barta, Lielupe, Nemunas and Venta by between 37% and 60% since the reference period.
• For the remaining five rivers no trend in waterborne inputs is assessed.

Fulfilment of phosphorus input ceilings by countries:

• None of the HELCOM countries fulfilled the input ceiling for phosphorus to all HELCOM sub-basins without reallocation of extra reduction. In relative terms, higher reduction remains to meet maximum allowable input (MAI) for phosphorus than for nitrogen (10% and 28% of MAI, respectively, HELCOM Core indicator on nutrients 1995-2020).
• All HELCOM and non-HELCOM countries exceeded input ceilings for the Baltic Proper without reallocation of extra reduction.
• No HELCOM Contracting Party increased their input of phosphorus since the reference period, but Ukraine increased its phosphorus inputs to Baltic Proper. All HELCOM Contracting Parties demonstrate either significant decreases or no statistically significant trends in phosphorus inputs.
• Denmark achieved reduction requirements for the Kattegat and Danish Straits. The input ceiling for the Baltic Proper is achieved by applying extra reduction from Danish Straits. Denmark reduced total phosphorus inputs to Danish Straits, Baltic Proper and the Kattegat by 29%, 20% and 18%, respectively.
• Estonia exceeded input ceilings to Baltic Proper, the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The remaining reductions for these sub-basins are 117%, 39% and 36%, respectively. Estonia reduced total phosphorus inputs to the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and Gulf of Riga by 45%, 26% and 18%, respectively.
• Finland exceeded input ceilings to the Gulf of Finland and Bothnian Sea but achieved it for Bothnian Bay. The remaining reduction for the Gulf of Finland is 107% and for the Bothnian Sea 8.0%. After reallocation of the extra reduction from Bothnian Bay to Bothnian Sea the missing reduction is reduced to 6.8%. Finland reduced total phosphorus inputs to the Bothnian Bay and Gulf of Finland by 18% and 17%, respectively.
• Germany meets the input ceiling for Danish Straits but has not achieved it for Baltic Proper where the remaining reduction is 119%. After reallocation of the extra reduction from Danish Straits to Baltic Proper the remaining reduction is reduced to 108%. Germany reduced total phosphorus inputs to the Danish Straits by 14%.
• Latvia exceeded input ceilings for both Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Riga where the remaining reduction is 66% and 24%, respectively. Latvia reduced total phosphorus inputs to Baltic Proper by 50%.
• Lithuania fulfilled the input ceiling for the Gulf of Riga but exceeded it for Baltic Proper where the remaining reduction is 55%. Reallocation of extra reduction achieved by Lithuania in the Gulf of Riga allowed reducing remaining reduction to the Baltic Proper to 46%. Lithuania reduced total phosphorus inputs to the Gulf of Riga and Baltic Proper by 97% and 45%, respectively.
• Poland exceeded the input ceiling for Baltic Proper, and the remaining reduction is 114%. Poland reduced total phosphorus inputs to Baltic Proper by 22%.
• Russia exceeded input ceilings for Baltic Proper, the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The remaining reductions for these sub-basins constitute 151%, 35% and 26%, respectively. Russia reduced total phosphorus inputs to the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Riga by 54%, 36% and 24%, respectively.
• Sweden achieved input ceilings for the Bothnian Sea, Danish Straits and the Kattegat. The remaining reduction for Bothnian Bay is 3.8% and within statistical uncertainty. Sweden exceeded input ceilings for the Baltic Proper, where the remaining reduction is 129%. By reallocation of extra reduction from Bothnian Sea to Bothnian Bay the inputs ceilings in Bothnian Sea is fulfilled. Reallocation of extra reduction from Bothnian Bay and Danish Straits to Baltic Proper reduces the remaining reduction to 58%. Sweden reduced total phosphorus inputs to Bothnian Sea, Danish Straits and Baltic Proper by 37%, 20% and 14, respectively.
• Non-HELCOM countries Belarus, Czech Republic, and Ukraine exceeded reduction requirements for the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Riga.
• All countries fulfilled national ceilings for total phosphorus inputs to Danish Straits and the Kattegat, and further to Bothnian Bay when accounting for extra reductions.

Fulfilment of phosphorus input ceilings for transboundary rivers:

• Phosphorus nutrient ceilings are not fulfilled for eight transboundary rivers with input ceilings. The remaining reduction for Lielupe is 16% but within statistical uncertainty. The remaining reduction is 215% for Pregolya, 128% for Vistula, 108% and 109% for Oder and Venta, respectively, 97% for Neva, 95% for Barta, 82% for Nemunas and 48% for Daugava.
• Waterborne phosphorus decreased in Barta, Lielupe, Nemunas, Neva, Oder and Vistula by between 22% and 38%. For the remaining three rivers no trend in waterborne inputs is assessed.

The time series (1995-2020) of nitrogen and phosphorus inputs have been reviewed and for some countries considerable re-reporting has been performed since the last NIC assessment based on 1995-2017 data. Further, EMEP has recalculated the annual atmospheric nitrogen deposition on sub-basins using improved model and resolution, which led to a remarkably higher deposition compared to former assessments. This has resulted in an overall increase of estimated inputs to the Baltic Sea sub-basins particularly for total nitrogen also in the reference period. Updated NICs were adopted in the 2021 BSAP taking into account the updated water and airborne data, improved data (including on retention) from transboundary rivers and the shares of transboundary inputs between countries sharing transboundary catchment. Compared with the NIC 2017, North Sea shipping (NOS) is separated as a source of nitrogen deposition. In the NIC 2017 assessment NOS was including in other countries (OC).

Nutrient Input Ceilings (NICs) agreed in the updated BSAP (2021) were used for the current assessment but taking into account revised shares of nitrogen and phosphorus inputs for Oder River between Germany and Poland that were proposed in 2022, changing NIC to Baltic Proper for Germany and Poland compared with the corresponding NICs in the BSAP 2021 update.